Economic Boom and Baby Bust in Georgia @gurapaedu

Economic Boom, Baby Bust · Part 4 of 6

04A door that never closes

From 2012 to 2023, more Georgians left than came back in every year but one, with a record in 2023. Since 2024 the flow has turned, yet the wish to leave has hardly changed.

A six-part series on why, in a growing economy, young Georgians wait to marry and have children. About the series

Previously, in Part 3: almost 1 in 3 young people who want a job cannot find one, a first flat costs 7.7 years of salary, and the country's direction is unclear. Read Part 3

Main findings

  • About 317,000 more citizens left than returned in 2012-2023.
  • Two in three young adults would leave for a while, but only one in seven forever.
  • EU work permits for Georgians rose fourteen times after visa-free travel began in 2017.

From 2012 to 2023, more Georgians left than came back in every year but one

People arriving in and leaving Georgia each year.

Source: Geostat.

From 2012 to 2023, about 317,000 more Georgian citizens left than came back, as if the whole of Batumi had emptied and a third of it again. In 2023 alone, 163,480 left. In 2024 and 2025, slightly more citizens returned than left. Inside the country, people move too: Batumi grew by more than half between the 2014 and 2024 censuses, while Khulo, in the mountains of the same region, lost almost a third.

So is the outflow over? Departures show what people do; surveys show what they say they would do. Economists call these revealed and stated preferences, and the two can differ. Ask people instead of counting them, and the answer is no.

Out of every 100 Georgians aged 18-34...

"If you had a chance, would you leave Georgia...?" 2024.

Source: CRRC, Caucasus Barometer 2024 Georgia (April-May 2024), questions MIGSHRT and EMIGRAT.

That gap between "for a while" and "forever" is the most hopeful number in this story. Young Georgians do not want to give up on Georgia. They want a Georgia that is worth staying in, and until it looks like one, they keep their options open. In 2019 the figure for a similar age group (18-35) was 69%: wanting to leave has become a permanent state of mind, not a reaction to one crisis.

Line up 13 Georgians aged 25-29

In 2025, one of them left the country for at least six months. No age group leaves more often.

These are the years in which people start a career, marry and have their first child. Where do they go? In March 2017 Georgians gained visa-free travel to the Schengen area. It gives no right to work, but it makes it much easier to look for work and apply for a permit.

After visa-free travel, EU work permits for Georgians took off

First residence permits issued to Georgians in the EU-27, by reason.

Source: Eurostat, first permits by reason (migr_resfirst), citizens of Georgia, 2013-2025.

Work permits rose from 1,806 in 2016 to 25,223 in 2022, fourteen times as many, most of them issued by Poland. For a young Georgian, the way out is real, legal and one flight away.

Next · Part 5 of 6

The hidden part of the brain drain iceberg

Those who leave send money home, and the statistics record every lari. What leaves with them is recorded nowhere. Part 5: the hidden part of the brain drain iceberg.

Read Part 5

All six parts