Previously, in Part 1: births have fallen for eleven years in a row, and most of the missing babies are first babies: families that never start. Read Part 1
Main findings
- For every 10 weddings in 2013, there are only 6 today: 9.3 per 1,000 people in 2013, 5.7 in 2025.
- Good waiting: many more women at university, and marriage under 18 banned.
- Costly waiting: every shock pushes the rate down, and it has never returned to its 2014 level.
In 2013, Georgia registered 9.3 marriages for every 1,000 people, one of the highest rates in Europe. In 2025 it registered 5.7, still above the EU average (3.9 in 2024). To understand the missing first babies, start with the missing weddings.
These numbers are not only about families. They follow the country's history. In the 1990s, births fell during the war and the economic collapse. After 2004, fast growth came with a boom in weddings, and more babies. Since 2014, one shock after another has made the future harder to read, and births have fallen every year.
Babies born per year and marriages per 1,000 people, first and last year of each period with data. Births before 2014 were re-estimated by Geostat after the 2014 census. Source: Geostat.
Good waiting More degrees, fewer child brides
In 2013, Georgia's universities enrolled about 45 women for every 100 women of university age. By 2023 the figure was 84. Over the same years, first births fell by a third.
More women at university, fewer first babies
Left: women enrolled at university per 100 women of university age. Right: first births per year.
This is not proof that one causes the other, but the mechanism is plausible: a woman who studies until 22 or 24 and then starts a career often marries later and has her first child later. In 2017 Georgia also banned marriage under 18. Teenage births had already dropped from 12,597 in 1994 to 4,467 in 2016, and the decline continued and steepened after the ban: by 2018 they fell to 3,117, and by 2025 they had dropped to 1,555 (from 22% of all births in 1994 to just 4% today). Georgian women now marry first at about 30, like women in Lithuania or Hungary. This is waiting that people choose freely, and it reflects more education and wider opportunities.
From 1 in 5 babies to 1 in 25: the collapse of teenage motherhood
Babies born to mothers under 20 per year (1994-2025). A three-decade decline continued and steepened after the 2017 ban on marriage under 18.
Family formation, however, is never a story of women alone. Men too are waiting much longer: in 1994, a Georgian man registered his first marriage at an average age of twenty-seven; today, he is over thirty-two. The entire rhythm of young adulthood has shifted upwards by five to seven years for both partners. Twenties that were once spent raising young families are now spent finishing degrees, seeking a foothold in the workforce, or trying to save for an independent life.
Young adulthood, then and now
Average age at first registered marriage and at a mother's first birth. Drag to compare any year with 1994.
Costly waiting When the future is too hard to read
If education were the whole story, the fall would be slow and steady. Instead it comes in steps, and the steps line up with shocks.
After each shock, weddings fell again and never returned to the 2014 level
Marriages per 1,000 people, 1994-2025. Green: the boom years. Shaded: four shocks.
- 2015 · Lari falls
- The lari loses about a fifth of its value against the dollar. Loans in dollars and imported goods become much more expensive.
- 2020 · Pandemic
- Weddings and large gatherings are restricted for months.
- 2022 · War in Ukraine
- Tens of thousands of Russians arrive, and rents in Tbilisi jump.
- Since Oct 2024 · Political crisis
- Disputed election, EU accession talks put on hold, months of protests, new laws on "foreign agents" and the media.
Look at what happens after each shock: the rate falls and never returns to its 2014 level. Couples who postponed their wedding in the pandemic caught up in 2021-2022, and then the rate went on falling.
The economics: why uncertainty makes people wait
Imagine you could buy a flat today. If you are sure you will keep your job and stay in Tbilisi, you buy it. If you are not sure, it is often smarter to wait a year. If things go well, you can still buy. If they go badly, you have avoided a mistake you could not undo.
Waiting keeps your options open, and economists call that the option value of waiting. It is worth most when the future is unclear and the decision is hard to undo. A wedding, a mortgage and a first child are the hardest decisions to undo. So when young Georgians do not know whether they will have a job next year, whether they will live in Tbilisi or Berlin, or what kind of country Georgia will be in ten years, waiting is a sensible choice. Nobody has to be pessimistic. It is enough to be unsure.
Waiting is worth more when...
- income is uncertain: almost 1 in 3 young people who want a job cannot find one;
- the first step is expensive: a first flat, or a big wedding;
- there is a way out: work abroad is one visa-free flight away;
- politics is unclear: nobody knows which way the country is heading.